Mark My Words: Something is Afoot in Cannabis Legalization

by Jason Piazza on June 3, 2025

Article originally written in late April, 2025.

The Opinions Expressed In This Post Are My Own And Not Necessarily Those Of My Employer.

The Question I’ve Been Asking for Years:

For years I wondered why the simple fixes at the federal level weren’t being made. The fixes are obvious, and it begs the question:

“Why? Why don’t they just do what’s right? The feds claim states’ rights on cannabis, but they punish legal operators with prohibition regulations. 70% of the population supports some level of legalization, decriminalization, or scheduling changes. More and more states are embracing ‘legal’ cannabis. The DEA can’t crack down on legal operators, because that would bring about full federal legalization quicker than they would like. And we know Wall Street wants the business. So why don’t they do the obvious and make logical changes? All they gotta do is create carve-outs from schedule-1 regulations for legal operators. It’s simple!”

My answer, to my own question, was also simple:

“Global corporations will let their puppets in the federal government know when the time is right. They want the infrastructure, but they don’t want to pay for it. Many industries want it: pharma, beverage (including alcohol), tobacco, Wall Street, and more. They’re letting operators build-out the infrastructure while drowning them in debt and taxes so they can swoop in when enough infrastructure is in place and gobble it all up for pennies on the dollar.”

Doesn’t seem far-fetched, does it? If you talked to me on the phone for more than 30 min over the last 6-7 years, then you’ve probably heard me say something along these lines.

Now let’s read the tea leaves, shall we? The evidence is mounting that this corporate takeover strategy is precisely what’s happening.

Regulatory Evolution: The Slow Path to Legalization

Federal Movement Toward Rescheduling

• 2018: Farm bill passes, legalizing hemp (cannabis with less than 0.3% THC) for industrial purposes. The bill contained significant loopholes around hemp-derived products that would later be exploited – coincidence or ineptitude? I know where I stand.
• October 2022: President Biden announces a review of marijuana’s Schedule I status, directing HHS and the DOJ to begin the process of potentially rescheduling cannabis.
• August 2023: Health and Human Services (HHS) issues a formal recommendation to the DEA supporting the rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, acknowledging the scientific evidence for medical applications.
• Early 2024: DEA initiates the administrative process toward rescheduling, including planning for Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) hearings.
• Early 2025: The scheduled ALJ hearing is postponed due to internal DEA issues – at least, that’s the official reason given.
• February 2025: New DEA appointee publicly claims cannabis rescheduling will be a major priority once confirmed.

State-Level Progress

• As of May 2025, 38 states have legalized medical cannabis programs.
• 24 states plus Washington DC have fully legalized adult recreational use.
• Several more states have cannabis legalization initiatives on their 2025-2026 ballots.
• Individual states continue to struggle with banking, taxation, and interstate commerce limitations due to federal prohibition.

New Legislative Proposals

• March 2025: The “States Reform Act 2.0” is introduced, building on previous attempts to create federal frameworks respecting state cannabis laws. This accomplishes essentially my solution above regarding “carve-outs” from federal prohibition.
• April 2025: The “PREPARE Act” is introduced, which would establish a federal regulatory framework in anticipation of legalization. This bipartisan bill (sponsored by Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)) creates the rulebook for how federal agencies will regulate cannabis after prohibition ends – exactly what large corporations need for their takeover.
• Reports indicate the administration is pushing for SAFE Banking provisions behind the scenes.

Corporate Maneuvers: Positioning for Takeover

Big Money Relationships

• January 2025: Multiple MSOs (Multi-State Operators) including Trulieve, Cresco Labs, Curaleaf, and Green Thumb Industries collectively donate millions to presidential inauguration events.
• Industry insiders confirm high-level meetings between cannabis executives and administration officials about “ending prohibition.”
• February 2025: At Benzinga NJ conference, a former MSO executive confirms to me directly that conversations about legalization are happening behind closed doors with the administration.

Strategic Partnerships Emerging

• Beverage Industry Moves:
  • Constellation Brands (Corona) has invested $4 billion in Canopy Growth since 2018
  • Molson Coors operates a joint venture with HEXO Corp for cannabis beverages
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev partnered with Tilray in a $100 million joint venture
  • March 2025: Reports emerge of multiple new partnerships between major beverage companies and established MSOs specifically in the infused beverage space
• Tobacco Industry Positioning:
  • Altria (Marlboro) invested $1.8 billion in Cronos Group
  • British American Tobacco has made strategic investments in cannabis research
• Pharmaceutical Interest:
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals acquired GW Pharmaceuticals (maker of FDA-approved Epidiolex) for $7.2 billion
  • Several major pharmaceutical companies have quietly filed cannabis-related patents

Market Indicators: The Infrastructure Squeeze

Financial Struggles of Established Operators

• Cannabis stocks hit historic lows in March/April 2025, with many down 80-90% from previous highs
• Prominent cannabis companies increasingly entering receivership due to tax burdens and debt:
  • MedMen required restructuring after failing to manage its aggressive expansion
  • iAnthus defaulted on debt obligations
  • CannTrust filed for creditor protection
  • Several mid-size operators have been acquired at pennies on the dollar
• Profit margins for legal operators continue to shrink due to 280E tax issues, state taxes, and compliance costs
• Banking remains limited and expensive despite more FDIC-insured banks (approximately 100) now serving the industry

The Hemp Beverage Explosion

• 2022-2023: Delta-8, THCA, and other hemp-derived products begin appearing on mainstream retail shelves
• 2024: Psychoactive hemp drinks emerge as a rapidly growing trend
• Early 2025: Hemp-derived THC beverages experience explosive growth, suddenly appearing in bars, restaurants, and nightclubs nationwide
• This widespread distribution happened suspiciously quickly – impossible without major distribution infrastructure (i.e., Big Beverage)
• April 2025: Major alcohol industry associations begin lobbying for hemp beverages to be regulated like alcohol – a clear sign they want to control this market
• May 2025: Mainstream publications like Wall Street Journal and LA Times publish feature articles on the hemp beverage phenomenon

Stock Market Signals

• After years of decline to historic lows, cannabis stocks surge by as much as 50%+ in April-May 2025
• Institutional investors begin increasing positions in cannabis companies
• Analysts from major financial firms issue new “buy” ratings on select cannabis stocks
• M&A activity accelerates with larger companies acquiring distressed assets

The Global Picture

• Canadian market serves as a cautionary tale: after legalization, large corporations gradually dominated while smaller operators struggled
• Germany begins implementing its cannabis legalization program in 2024-2025
• Multiple EU countries are developing medical cannabis programs
• March 2025: European Commission signals openness to harmonized cannabis regulations across the EU
• International trade agreements are being quietly updated to accommodate legal cannabis trade

What’s Really Happening Here?

The pattern is unmistakable. The infrastructure for a nationwide cannabis industry has been built largely by entrepreneurs and investors who have shouldered enormous financial risks. They’ve created:

• Advanced cultivation facilities
• Sophisticated processing and manufacturing capabilities
• Established brands with consumer loyalty
• Retail networks and distribution channels
• Regulatory compliance frameworks
• Consumer education and normalization

Now that this infrastructure is in place but financially stressed, major corporations are positioning themselves to acquire these assets at bargain prices once federal reform happens. The sudden emergence of hemp-derived beverages in mainstream venues is no accident – it’s a trial run for the big players.

What Comes Next?

The writing is on the wall. After years of watching this slow-motion corporate takeover unfold, the pace is accelerating rapidly.

Based on the historical data I’ve outlined and the clear patterns emerging, I predict we’ll see:

1. Within the next 12 months, I expect to see the following:

1. • Either rescheduling to Schedule III, or States 2.0 Act will be signed into law
     • It shouldn’t be both: States 2.0 would be preferred so federal law enforcement can crack down on the illegal market.
   • Federal banking reform (SAFE) is put in place, fueling an M&A frenzy

2. Aa a result of federal change, we will see a wave of M&A as i) MSOs are purchased by alcohol, tobacco, and pharmaceutical giants, and ii) further industry consolidation will continue at a quicker pace. The end result of the M&A frenzy will leave fewer, larger players controlling the majority of the market
3. Regulatory framework that favors large-scale operations over craft producers — brought about partly through federal pressure as a result of rescheduling or States 2.0. This will include regulations around the hemp beverage space.
4. Within 24-36 months following either rescheduling or States 2.0, full federal legalization will occur through corporate pressure from the new cannabis C-suite: executives from Anheuser Busch, Marlboro, Pharma, and all the rest.

The question isn’t whether federal reform is coming – it’s who will benefit when it does. And all signs point to the same corporate interests that have been patiently waiting in the wings while others built the industry for them.

Mark my words.